Computer models assist forecast spread of Zika virus

With about sixty countries and territories worldwide reporting active forecast spread of Zika virus transmission, assuming the international spread of the mosquito-borne sickness has been challenging for public health officials.

Although, researchers are leveraging large-scale computational models that help socio-demographic and travel data as well as simulations of infection transmission—needing the computing power of 30,000 processors simultaneously—to project the path of the infection.

The Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model has been utilized in the past to evaluate the spread of Ebola, H1N1 flu, and other outbreaks on a global scale. Although, in forecast spread of Zika, researchers have depended more on the ancient patterns of mosquito-borne diseases like chikungunya and dengue.

While the forecast spread of Zika virus can also be transmitted sexually, their computer model doesn’t take that mode of transmission into consideration.

In fact, mosquitoes bring an added level of complexity to the equation, provided the uncertainty of their travel behaviors, abundance and lifecycle relying on temperature, as well as the relationship between Zika and its host mosquitoes.

In accordance to Alessandro Vespignani, professor of physics and director of the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University, what makes Zika such an issue to detect and predict is that as many as 80% of individuals infected with the virus are asymptomatic, and it is significantly transmitted by mosquitoes and spread globally through travel.

But by merging real-world data on populations, human mobility and weather with elaborate stochastic models of disease transmission, a group of fourteen researchers—half drawn from Northeastern—has devised projections for Zika cases in the Americas through the year of January 2017.

The great news is that modeling algorithms don’t predict very huge Zika outbreaks in the continental USA, in accordance to Vespignani. While the Florida has had the greatest threat for Zika transmission, he notes that researchers “project at most a total of a some hundred cases in Florida in the next 3 months” and “in other regions of the continental USA, there are very minimal probabilities of certain cases.”

This downward pressure on the forecast spread of Zika virus is being assisted by the end of mosquito season which is reliant on climate conditions. Mosquitoes multiply fastest in tropical and sub-tropical habitats, and decreasing or dropping temperatures this fall and into winter are unfavorable for mosquitoes to thrive.

Yet, there is continued worse news for the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico, which has been ravaged by the virus, and, if present trends continue, as many as 25% of the population of nearly 3.5 million will become infected with Zika virus by the end of the year.

Just like chikungunya and dengue, Vespignani claims that forecast spread of Zika virus is not a danger that is going away anytime soon, and he assumes that it will come in waves as a seasonal phenomenon. “The primary query now is what will happen in the continents of Asia and Africa?” he summarizes, where more than 2 billion individuals could be at threat from contracting the virus.

In addition to the institute of Northeastern University, the research team modeling Zika involves Bocconi University in Milan, the University of Florida in Gainesville, Fla., Italy, Bruno Kessler Foundation in Trento, Italy, Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation in Torino, Italy, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle and the University of Washington.

 

Hundreds of USA hospitals follow Catholic principles on reproductive care

When she was 22 weeks pregnant, Mindy Swank began to bleed. She had known for nearly 2 weeks that she was miscarrying – and in such a way that she was at threat for infection.

But the Catholic hospital near her home had rejected to induce labor, apparently considering that doing so would violate its ban on abortion. And on this morning, the bleeding made no difference. The hospital sent her home – and then again and again, for 5 more weeks until she started severely hemorrhaging at week 27. Then, they induced her labor.

Swank’s story comes from a latest report by the American Civil Liberties Union and MergerWatch, a public health watchdog that monitors healthcare institutions with religious links. The report finds that one out of every 6 beds in the country’s acute care hospitals is in a hospital with Catholic affiliations and that Catholic hospitals make up 15 percent, or 548, of the country’s hospitals. Those numbers attest to the sharp rise in Catholic control of medical institutions over a decade: since 2001, through a steady thrum of sales and mergers, the number of hospitals with Catholic ties has gone up by 22 percent.

How Opioid Abuse Invests To Rising Healthcare Prices

As the opioid epidemic in the USA sustains taking lives across the nation, it is also investing to rising healthcare prices for taxpayers.

Released in the May issue of the journal Health Affairs, a latest retrospective cohort research disclosed that hospitalizations regarded to opioid abuse/dependence rose importantly from 301,707 in the year 2002 to 520,275 in the year 2012, an increase of 72 percent. Overall hospitalizations during the similar time period sustained highly consistent: moderately growing from 36.52 million to 36.48 million.

Through email, study author Dr. Matthew Ronan, a hospitalist at the VA Boston Healthcare System’s West Roxbury Medical Center and a proposed instructor at the institute of Harvard Medical School, stated that injection opioid abuse leads to several difficulties, one of the most famous is critical infection.

Opioid-regarded hospitalizations with crucial infection jumped 91 percent to 6,535. Observing trends arranged within individual kinds of infection, the investigators discovered similar progress in the various cases of endocarditis (1.5-fold increase), septic arthritis (2.7- fold), osteomyelitis (2.2-fold), and epidural abscess (2.6-fold).

“Our research features the sobering effect of these infections on healthcare systems, but also on the sufferers themselves who are suffering from the immense addiction," he asserted. "Up to 5% of sufferers presenting to the hospital with an infection regarded to their opioid abuse will die during the process of hospitalization. Out of those that survive and live to hospital discharge, more than the rate of quarter will be too much functionally damaged to  go back home instantly and will require spending time in a rehab or qualified nursing facility and service. These are the proposed sobering statistics in a sufferer population with an average age of forty-three years.”

Dr. Shoshana Herzig, a hospitalist and impressive director of Hospital Medicine Research at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center and an assistant professor of medicine at the institution of the Harvard Medical School claimed the conclusions of research disclose the requirement for clinicians to prescribe the abusive narcotics more judiciously than they have been ever.

Cyberattacks, Ransomware, and Hacking in the Health Care Agency: Lessons from a Letter to the FBI

The last various weeks have brought a host of alarming revelations relating to the vulnerability of few of the most confidential data that corporations and legal entities maintain on their servers. Most prominently, the story of the so-called “Panama Papers” sustains to pursue substantial media attention, as the theft of approximately 2.6 terabytes of data from the Panamaian law firm Mossack Fonseca, and its disclosure to the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, has already caused the resignation of one international leader and threaten the fates of several more. Perhaps less provocative, but no less important, is a recent Wall Street Journal article reporting that hackers illegally accessed the computer networks at some of the most respected and prestigious law firms in the USA, apparently for the purpose of stealing confidential information that in turn can facilitate insider trading.

It should not be shocking that entities in the legal industry face these sorts of attacks, offered the significance of the information they maintain. Somewhat less clear, though, is the extent to which entities in the health care field also confront a demonstrated risk of data theft at the hands of hackers seeking financial gain. In fact, although medical information about celebrity sufferers may be enticing to hackers, the information that hospitals maintain is typically not the sort that can generate newspaper headlines or lead to profitable insider trading. Yet, whether due to a desire on the part of hackers to steal data like social security numbers or Medicare provider credentials, or to extort a ransom by locking health care contributors out of critical patient information, the threat is still very real. In fact, on the day of April 8, 2016,Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) sent a letter to FBI Director James Comey that rightfully brings heightened attention to the problem of data integrity and electronic theft in the health care industry.

The fed's latest 'war on drugs': Obama suggests $1.1 billion to extend care for opioid addicts

Amid a proposed prescription opioid abuse and heroin use epidemic highly fueled by over prescribing among the doctors, President Obama has recommended giving $1.1 billion to extend affected people individuals’ approach to care— a suggestion that has garnered bipartisan support. However few professionals question whether throwing money at the problem will be enough, several consider that, if utilized properly, the funding has the possibility to save lives.

In accordance to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), almost half a million Americans lost their lives from drug overdoses between the years of 2000 and 2014. Opioid overdose deaths, involving those from heroin, hit record highs in the year 2014 and observed a 14% increase in only 1 year.

Baltimore City Health Commissioner Dr. Leana Wen, who has served as an emergency room doctor in 1 of the nation’s opioid addiction hotspots, claimed the proposal offers a shift in views about addiction as an individual’s issue best controlled with law imposition, to a chronic medical condition such as diabetes or heart disease that can be stopped and treated.

“That science has been around for many decades, and society’s view point has grabbed up.”

“A pill for every pain”

In the year 2014, 259 million opioids— or sufficient for every American adult— were prescribed, in accordance to the CDC. The most usual prescribed opioid pain relievers were natural or semi-synthetic opioids such as oxycodone and hydrocodone, which are included in the most overdose deadly deaths among opioids. The CDC observed 813 more deaths, a 9% increase, from these kinds of opioids in the year 2014 than 2013.

Over the previous decades, the deaths resulting from the extreme opioid abuse and abuse of illegal narcotics such as heroin have reached on peaks.

A study issued in the month of November 2015 issue of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences recommended overdoses from drugs such as opioids is believed to be one of the primary reasons why deaths of middle-age white Americans are rising while the overall death amount in USA has fallen.

MedStar claims IT networks being restored after hack

MedStar Health claimed “significant progress” in restoring data systems that were hacked by a cyber attack on the day of Monday.

In a statement issued on the day of Tuesday afternoon, the agency said it expected to restore operations with most of its systems by the end of day Tuesday. The statement attributed the tragedy to malware. “At the initial signs of a problem, our team rapidly made a decision to take down all of our systems as a precaution and to make sure of no further corruption,” the system stated.

“With few distinctive exceptions, entire doors remain open,” the 10-hospital delivery system stated that in its comments, responding to issued reports that few sufferers had been turned away from services.

MedStar claimed that it was utilizing backup systems, involving paper documentation “as an extra layer of support to our clinical operations.”

Outside enforcement organizations, involving the FBI, are engaging in the investigation of the cyber attack. “We will sustain to partner with professionals in the field of IT and cybersecurity, as well as law enforcement, to continually assess the situation as we safely restore functionality,” MedStar said.

The integrated delivery network, deployed in Columbia, Md., and the greatest healthcare contributor in Maryland and Washington, D.C., again affirmed that patient data has not been compromised or stolen. “Patient data will not be added to any system without making sure that it is entirely free of any and all viruses and security threats,” its statement claimed.

“Instead of the challenges impacting the MedStar Health’s IT systems, the quality and safety of our sufferers remains our greatest priority, which has not waned throughout this experience,” stated Stephen R.T. Evans, MD, MedStar’s executive vice president of medical affairs and chief medical officer. “Fortunately, the significant ways in which we deliver patient care can’t be changed, manipulated or harmed by malicious efforts to disrupt the services we offer.”

“Thanks to the dedication of our clinical and Information Technology teams, we are dealing the present problem in an expeditious and precise manner,” claims Kenneth A. Samet, MedStar’s president and CEO, in the release.

The MedStar statement did not deal the exact genre of the attack, which many professionals attribute to a ransomware-style hack. Healthcare agencies have been the subject of these attacks, which utilize software to lock access to data or computers until a “ransom” is paid to unlock the information.

“Ransomware is rapidly becoming an important threat to the presence of the IT infrastructure of agencies of all industry places and sizes,” states Wolfgang Kandek, chief technology officer of Qualys, an information security firm. “In order to reduce the vulnerability to ransomware, IT managers require hardening their users’ workstations, as these are the primary targets of the attacks.”

The increasing number of ransom-based attacks against healthcare agencies shows the requirement for increased vigilance, claims Cris Thomas of Tenable, one of the firm’s security experts.

“With 6 hospital systems attacked across the USA, the healthcare organization has emerged as the obvious target of choice for ransomware cyber criminals,” he states. “Ransomware viruses like Locky and Samas are critical threats on their own, but the repeated victories of hackers have enjoyed utilizing this tactic is also a symptom of a greater issue with U.S. healthcare cybersecurity.”

The cyber attack against MedStar indicates the requirement for the Department of Health and Human Services to execute significant provisions of the Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act of 2015, stated Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.), chairman of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions.

Alexander asserts that a Senate health committee provision in the cybersecurity law would make sure that HHS offers hospitals clear data on ways to stop hackings and put someone at the organization in a central role for responding to cyber attacks

“The results of cyber attacks like yesterday’s hacking at MedStar Health can be serious for America’s sufferers,” Alexander stated. “Congress has approved a law to assist to keep hospitals and sufferers safe from these malicious attacks – calling for Health and Human Services to offer hospitals and doctors clear data on the best ways to stop a hack in the 1^st place and putting someone at the organization on the flagpole if a cyber attack happens. Yesterday’s attack, which, sadly, is not distinctive, indicates the requirement for HHS to apply the law with the urgency sufferers and hospitals deserve.”

Observe Global healthcare provider network management consumption report outlook in the year 2016

Global Healthcare Provider Network Management Consumption 2016 is a latest market research publication declared by Reportstack. This report is a professional and thorough study on the present state of the Healthcare Provider Network Management market.

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Then, the report concentrates on global major leading industry players with data like company profiles, product picture and specifications, sales, market share and contact information. What is more, the Healthcare Provider Network Management industry development trends and marketing channels are observed.

Finally, the feasibility of latest investment projects is assessed, and overall research conclusions are given.

Donald Trump’s Discussion on Health Care Is Not Matched by His Policy

When Donald Trump discussions about health care, he sounds as if he needs to do something different from the rest of the Republican field. But his health care policy, released on the day of Wednesday night, looks a lot like what his competitors have already presented.

On the stump, Mr. Trump has tended to buck Republican anti-Obamacare orthodoxy. He has always called for repealing the health law, which he explains as a bureaucratic disaster and an financial drag. But he has repeatedly depicted enthusiasm for some of its concepts and ambitions.

He has admired single-payer health care systems in the country Canada and Scotland. He has claimed that the government must take care of the lowest-income Americans. He has endorsed a provision of the law that stops insurance companies from refusing coverage to people with prior sicknesses. He mostly repeats that the USA requires a system to stop people from dying in the streets.

The impression he offers is that the US ought to help give health insurance to the public, merely in a less cumbersome, costly way. “We have to take care of persons in this country,” he said at last week’s Republican debate, adding that he did not care if his compassionate health care proposals lost him the election.

4 Health Care Contributors & Services Stocks to Purchase Now

This week, four Health Care Contributors & Services stocks are making better their overall rating on Portfolio Grader. Each of these ranks an “A” (“strong buy”) or “B” overall (“buy”).

Quest Diagnostics Incorporated (DGX) receives a higher grade this week, advancing from a C previous week to a B. Quest Diagnostics Incorporated offers diagnostic testing, data, and services. The company also receives A’s in operating margin progress, earnings growth, earnings momentum, and free cash flow.

Almost Family, Inc. (AFAM) indicates solid betterment this week. The company’s rating increases from a B to a A. Nearly Family, Inc. is a regionally focused contributor of home health services with locations around the USA. The company also receives A’s in operating margin growth, earnings growth, earnings revisions, earnings surprise, and free cash flow.

 LHC Group, Inc. (LHCG) makes better from a B to a A rating this week.LHC Group, Inc. gives the southern US. The company also gets A’s in earnings growth.

This week, Triple-S Management Corporation Class B (GTS) rises up from a B to a A rating. Triple-S Management Corporation Class B is an independent licensee of the Blue Cross Blue Shield Association. The company also receives A’s in sales growth, operating margin growth, earnings revisions, earnings surprise, and free cash flow.

5 Lessons Healthcare Leaders learns From An Unlikely Source

Healthcare in the USA is not safe. One in 4 sufferers admitted to a hospital will suffer some form of unintended harm, one in 6 will get an infection and over 500 a day will die of a preventable mistake. Healthcare is believed to be the most dangerous occupation—more dangerous than coal mining or building skyscrapers.

With various persons getting hurt, many healthcare leaders are attempting to import effective safety strategies from other industries. A conference today hosted by Johns Hopkins’ Armstrong Institute for Patient Safety and Quality will explore these concepts. Led by Armstrong’s director, MacArthur “Genius Grant” awardee Dr. Peter Pronovost, the conference will investigate instances of “high reliability” strategies utilized in manufacturing, transportation and other industries.

1 sector Pronovost considers worthy of specific attention is nuclear power, an industry where—thank heavens—safety and protection is king.

In the wake of the 1989 Chernobyl accident, the leaders of every commercial nuclear reactor across the globe made the World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO), with the objective of gaining industry-wide excellence. WANO sends teams of peer reviewers to analyze operations and make sure the safety at every commercial nuclear power plant in the globe.

“We like to say the complete industry is arranged hostage to each other,” elaborated Riccardo Chiarelli, WANO senior program manager. “If an accident happens in a nuclear power plant in the country Japan, the nuclear industry in the U.S.A and everywhere else will be affected. If we need to succeed as an industry, we require making sure everybody is at the greatest level of excellence. We can’t afford low performance anywhere in the world.”

Chiarelli was recently inquired to speak at a forum of the National Academy of Sciences on future directions for safer patient care, and will be offering a webinar February 25 at the Imperial College of London, on how lessons learned from the nuclear industry can be applied to sufferer safety. What follows is a summary of a conversation I had with Chiarelli over the principles of nuclear protection that might be implemented to healthcare.

1. Leadership and accountability are inextricably connected.


2. Concentrate on results.


3. When employees speak, leadership listens.


4. There are no isolated tragedies.


5. Aspire to be ideal and perfect.

Emmi - Roth Käse USA Announces Recall of Spreadables brand Crab Creole and Shrimp Scampi Cheese Spreads

Contact:
Jim Natzke
608-328-2122 x5
Kevin Davis
608-328-2122 x59

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE - March 12th, 2010 - Monroe, Wis - Emmi - Roth Käse USA is voluntarily recalling approximately 1,971 total individual containers of 7 ounce and 2 pound Spreadables brand Crab Creole and Shrimp Scampi cheese spreads because they have the potential to be contaminated with Salmonella, an organism which can cause serious and sometimes fatal infections in young children, frail or elderly people, and others with weakened immune systems. Healthy persons infected with Salmonella often experience fever, diarrhea (which may be bloody), nausea, vomiting and abdominal pain. In rare circumstances, infection with Salmonella can result in the organism getting into the bloodstream and producing more severe illnesses such as arterial infections (i.e., infected aneurysms), endocarditis and arthritis.

"Spreadables" brand Crab Creole and Shrimp Scampi cheese spreads were sold nationwide by Emmi-Roth Käse USA sales people and distributors. They were sold from 12/11/09 thru 3/8/10. The recall lots (same as sell by date) are as follows:

Crab Creole 7 oz. tub: 5/9/10, 5/2/10, 4/25/10, 5/23/10, 3/21/10, 3/14/10, 5/26/10
Crab Creole 2 lb. tub: 5/9/10, 5/2/10, 4/25/10, 3/29/10, 5/16/10, 3/21/10, 3/14/10
Shrimp Scampi 7 oz. tub: 5/23/10, 5/16/10, 3/29/10
Shrimp Scampi 2 lb. tub: 5/16/10, 5/23/10, 4/11/10

All known purchasers of the 1,971 containers of Spreadables brand Crab Creole and Shrimp Scampi cheese spreads have been contacted and told to destroy the product. A full refund has been offered to every customer.

Spreadables brand Crab Creole and Shrimp Scampi cheese spreads were sold in clear 7 ounce and 2 pound containers. The top of the container is labeled as the original "Spreadables" gourmet cheese spread in "Crab Creole" and "Shrimp Scampi" flavor varieties. The bottom of the containers feature the nutritional information, as well as: "Roth Käse USA Ltd."

To date, no known illnesses have been associated with this product.

Spreadables brand Crab Creole and Shrimp Scampi cheese spreads were made using Hydrolyzed Vegetable Protein (HVP), manufactured by Basic Food Flavors, Inc., Las Vegas, Nevada. One lot of HVP had tested positive for Salmonella Tennesse and was reported to the FDA, in addition to being found in the facility of Basic Food Flavors, Inc.

These products should be destroyed immediately. Consumers with questions should contact Jim Natzke, Vice President of Operations, Emmi-Roth Käse USA at 608.328.2122 x5 or Kevin Davis x59 QC Manager (Monday – Friday 8:00am-5:00pm C.S.T.) for replacement, substitution or refund.

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ELECTRONIC MEDICAL RECORDS

Paper-based records have been in existence for centuries* and their gradual replacement by computer-based records has been slowly underway for over twenty years in western healthcare systems. Computerised information systems have not achieved the same degree of penetration in healthcare as that seen in other sectors such as finance, transport and the manufacturing and retail industries. Further, deployment has varied greatly from country to country and from speciality to specialty and in may cases has revolved around local systems designed for local use. National penetration of EMRs may have reached over 90% in primary care practices in Norway, Sweden and Denmark (2003), but has been limited to 17% of physician office practices in the USA (2001-2003) [HHS, 2005]. Those EMR systems that have been implemented however have been used mainly for administrative rather than clinical purposes. Electronic medical record systems lie at the center of any computerised health information system. Without them other modern technologies such as decision support systems cannot be effectively integrated into routine clinical workflow. The paperless, interoperable, multi-provider, multi-specialty, multi-discipline computerised medical record, which has been a goal for many researchers, healthcare professionals, administrators and politicians for the past 20+ years, is however about to become reality in many western countries. Over the past decade, the political impetus for change in almost all western countries has become stronger and stronger. Incontrovertible evidence has increasingly shown that current systems are not delivering sufficiently safe, high quality, efficient and cost effective healthcare (see Public Reports section on OpenClinical), and that computerisation, with the EMR at the centre, is effectively the only way forward. As Tony Abott (Australian Minister for Heath and Ageing) said in August 2005: "Better use of IT is no panacea, but there's scarcely a problem in the health system it can't improve". For the first time, the responses have been national and co-ordinated. Governments in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, New Zealand, the UK, the USA and other countries have announced - and are implementing - plans to build integrated computer-based national healthcare infrastructures based around the deployment of interoperable electronic medical record systems. And many of these countries aim to have EMR systems deployed for their populations within the next 10 years.

TERMS

Terms used in the field include electronic medical record (EMR), electronic patient record (EPR), electronic health record (EHR), computer-based patient record (CPR) etc. These terms can be used interchangeably or generically but some specific differences have been identified. For example, an Electronic Patient Record has been defined as encapsulating a record of care provided by a single site, in contrast to an Electronic Health Record which provides a longitudinal record of a patient�s care carried out across different institutions and sectors. But such differentiations are not consistently observed.

C. Peter Waegemann in his Medical Record Institute EHR Status Report provides, within a historical context, a summary of the different functions and visions implied by the various terms used to refer to EMRs.