Electronic health records systems are at the threat for disruptive change

Healthcare agencies are increasingly selecting electronic health records systems from among a handful of leading HIT vendors. Relying on how you measure penetration, among the leaders are Epic, Cerner and Allscripts. Electronic health records systems are at the threat for disruptive change.

While the market is being dominated by major vendors now, Eric Topol, MD, recently claimed that he anticipates radical change ahead. “I do not see Epic, Allscripts or Cerner in existence in another decade,” Topol asserts.

Joel Selanikio, MD, analyzes the rationale for prediction of Topol. As healthcare morphs from an emphasis on institutional care to motivating consumers to become active participants in maintaining their health, current vendors require changing or risk irrelevance. Electronic health records systems are at the threat for disruptive change.

Selanikio, a practicing pediatrician and an ex-epidemiologist for the Centers for Disease Control, recommends that electronic health records systems could possibly follow the evolution of other kinds of technology that have been changed in the lifetime of CIOs.

Addressing those top IT executives at the February 19 CIO Forum of the College of Healthcare Information Management Executive in the Orlando, he mentioned the example of Nokia, which rolled out the E61 phone in the year of 2006 to rave reviews and with designs to capture the business cell phone market from Blackberry. That year, Nokia reported $75 billion in revenue, the largest it had ever achieved, stated Selanikio, who’s currently CEO of Magpi, which gives applications for mobile data collection.

That was the high-water for Nokia, as revenues shrunk from then on—instantly, the company was sold to Microsoft for merely $7 billion, a fraction of its 2006 revenues.

The iPhone emerged in the year of 2007, and that changed the cell phone market forever, Selanikio claims. “There was a consumer mobile market back in the year of 2006, but it was quite small,” he says. “Apple identified that the consumer mobile market was going to be capable to grow a lot faster. The things that consumers needed to do on their devices weren’t what Blackberry and Palm were trying to do.”

Apple eventually circled back in the year of 2011 to establish a line of service for business users, but just after transforming, and building a substantial lead in the consumer phone market.

“What we are searching at here is a large company invading the market by looking at a piece of the market that the big boys were not interested in,” Selanikio states.

The competition in healthcare today is that the market for selling healthcare IT to consumers is a small spot in the market, but focus of consumers on health and IT is increasing rapidly. For instance, the Apple Watch is “fascinating,” he claims, “Because it is regarded as a failure. Apple has revenue of over $10 billion a year from the Apple Watch, about the total made by large electronic health records systems companies.”

The Apple Watch and other consumer electronic devices are initiating to give more capabilities that consumers need, and bring together information, like health administration and assisting consumers to track progress in achieving health goals.

“What is most interesting is that they are pulling stuff out of the healthcare system,” Selanikio claims. “Things that used to happen in the doctor’s office or physical therapists’ office are now being offered outside the traditional healthcare system. Consumers can diagnose their own issues, with devices that use artificial intelligence, and prescribe a treatment for themselves. Artificial intelligence is the turbocharger for this new growth.”

Technology will be capable to give better health with less healthcare, and the consumer market will grow. The interest of huge technology companies, like Apple, Google and Amazon, will be piqued at that point, he predicts. “$10 billion is not enough to get Apple interested in going into a market that is so fraught with regulation,” he claims. “But outside the healthcare system, there is a much larger amount being spent on health. It can follow a very simple pattern—the large tech companies will concentrate on low end parts of HIT that incumbents do not worry about, but have huge potential. Then, they will make a lot of money on that and then put it into taking the high end of the market.”

Selanikio claims that his feelings about Topol’s prediction is not intended to induce gloom. “What we are talking about is a better way to maintain and improve our health,” he says. “It is a real chance to meet needs that consumers will want.”